Key supply and demand trends in China
Key major supply/demand trends from Chinese presentations at the 3rd China/Global Timber & Wood Products Conference in Guangzhou, China on 16 September 2013 organized by WOOD MARKETS in conjunction with the China Timber and Wood Products Distribution Association include:
- China consumed 500 million m3 of wood in 2011. Wood imports totaled 230 million m3 (46%) of consumption.
- Total wood consumption in China came from mainly four industry segments:
- building construction (25%);
- pulp and paper production (29%);
- furniture production (18%);
- wood products output for export (17%); and
- other (11%).
- China imported 37.9 million m3 of softwood and hardwood logs in 2012. Log imports in 2013 are expected to rise by 12% to about 42 million m3, reaching the peak level of 2011.
- New Zealand is expected to become China’s largest log supplier in 2013 (over 11 million m3), surpassing Russia, whose log exports to China in 2013 are anticipated to drop by some 12% to fewer than 10 million m3.
- The fastest-growing log exporter to China is the Ukraine; its log exports are up by more than 250% for the first 7 months of 2013.
- Although a much smaller volume, log imports from Northern Europe (75,000 m3 est.) and Chile (80,000 m3 est.) are expanding rapidly.
- China’s sawn lumber imports are expected to be 10%–11% higher in 2013 than 2012 (about 22 million m3).
- Russian lumber exports to China are projected to grow by 10%, and will exceed Canadian lumber exports to China (-5%) in 2013. Russian lumber exports to China have more than tripled in the last five years.
- Chinese plywood exports are being negatively impacted by the U.S. anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariff, and the European EUTR certification regulations.
- In the future, the rate of increase in China’s wood products demand will slow down, but large-scale consumption will persist.
Source: International WOOD MARKETS Group, www.woodmarkets.com
European sawmills triple softwood log and timber exports to China
After a slowdown in 2012, China’s expanding housing market has driven up its demand for logs and timber this year. Even if Russia, Canada, US and more recently New Zealand are the major suppliers for China, the European sawmills are beginning to make their presence felt on the Chinese market.
According to the latest Eurostat figures, in the first seven months of 2013, EU’s softwood logs exports to China more than tripled over the same period of 2012. Romania has the lead, with a share of 28% of all European exports (and a 224% increase yoy), followed closely by France (27,9%) and Lithuania (22,9%).
Softwood timber exports almost tripled as well, with Finland, Sweden and Germany accounting for 84% of the overall EU exports. Year-on-year, Finnish and Swedish softwood timber shipments to China increased three times, meanwhile those from Germany rose 304%.
In January-July 2013, the combined (softwood log timber) value of exports to China reached EUR 185 million, higher by EUR 123 million as compared to January-July 2012.
China’s lumber and log imports booming last month
China’s lumber and log imports in September showed respective increases of 31.7% and 30.2% to 2.2 million m3 of lumber and 4.27 million m3 of logs; year-to-date lumber and log imports up 14.9% and 16.4%, respectively.
Lumber. In September 2013 China imported 2,200,000 m3 of lumber at an average cost of $279 per m3. Lumber imports are up 31.7% compared to Sept. 2012 when they were 1,670,000 m3. YTD lumber imports are 17.540 million m3 compared to 15.260 million m3 in the prior period (up 14.9%).
Logs. In September 2013 China imported 4,270,000 m3 of logs at an average price of $204 per m3. Log imports are up 30.2% compared to Sept. 2012 when they were 3,280,000 m3. YTD log imports are 33.260 million m3 compared to 28.570 million m3 in the prior period (up 16.4%).
Pulp. On a month-to-month basis, pulp imports are down 2.8%, lumber imports are down 0.9% and log imports are up 4.9% when comparing to August 2013. Prices month over month are up 1.2% for pulp, up 0.8% for lumber and up 0.4% for logs.
Source: CIBC World Markets Inc