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Forest & Wood Communities Australia is calling on Federal Parliament to disallow the Carbon Credits (Carbon Farming Initiative – Improved Forest Management in Multiple-use Public Native Forests) Methodology Determination 2026, warning that the method risks issuing carbon credits for shutting down sustainable timber production while shifting the environmental, economic and emissions impacts elsewhere. Source: Timberbiz FWCA Chair Steve Dobbyns said the INFM method should be disallowed before any Australian Carbon Credit Units are issued. “Carbon credits should represent genuine climate benefit,” Mr Dobbyns said. “They should not be used to financially reward governments for closing sustainable public native forestry while timber demand simply moves to imports, interstate supply chains or private landholders. “That is not emissions reduction. That is displacement.” ERAC’s own advice confirms that leakage, additionality and transparency were central concerns raised through consultation. The final method replaced the original flat 5% indirect leakage deduction with project-level assessment, but only within a possible deduction range of 0 to 40%. FWCA says that 40% cap is impossible to justify against Venn et al. (2026), which found that reduced Australian native forest harvesting has driven growing import dependency, with a long-run timber harvest leakage rate of 81.3%. Venn et al. also found that 86.8% of displaced demand was met by countries with elevated illegality-risk profiles. “Venn et al. found a long-run timber harvest leakage rate of 81.3%,” Mr Dobbyns said. “That international leakage estimate alone is more than double the INFM method’s 40% cap, before inter-State leakage or private native forestry displacement are properly accounted for. “The timber demand does not disappear. It is shifted, along with jobs, emissions risk and biodiversity pressure.” FWCA says the contradiction is made worse by advice given directly to Venn et al. during discussions with ERAC. “We understand Professor Karen Hussey, Chair of ERAC, clarified in a meeting with Tyron Venn that ERAC did not have to consider leakage to imports when assessing the method,” Mr Dobbyns said. “If that is correct, it exposes the hypocrisy at the heart of the INFM approval. “ERAC says leakage was a key integrity concern, yet the largest leakage pathway identified by Venn et al. — import substitution — was apparently outside the scope ERAC had to consider. “You cannot claim a carbon method is conservative while excluding the market response most likely to undermine the claimed abatement.” FWCA also says Venn et al.’s import leakage work does not capture inter-State leakage, such as the supply shift from Victoria to Tasmania highlighted by ABC’s Four Corners program Timber Turmoil, nor does it resolve leakage onto private native forests. “For private native forestry, there is no comprehensive, transparent production baseline equivalent to public forest sustainable yield and wood supply records,” Mr Dobbyns said. “You cannot credibly deduct leakage against a baseline that does not properly exist. “Worse still, the Great Koala National Park moratorium has already distorted the market. Pentarch’s State forest log supply was cut off by the NSW Government, and the company has been forced to shift its entire supply focus onto private property. “That means any future private native forestry baseline may already be contaminated by the policy shock.” FWCA says the INFM approval process has also failed to transparently assess the economic and social impacts of the method. “The INFM is not an abstract carbon accounting exercise,” Mr Dobbyns said. “It is a method designed to reward the permanent removal of timber supply from multiple-use public native forests. That has direct consequences for workers, contractors, mills, downstream businesses, private landholders and regional communities.” FWCA disputes the NSW Government’s claim that the Great Koala National Park moratorium and INFM pathway only affect six timber mills and approximately 300 jobs. “That figure is not a serious socio-economic assessment,” Mr Dobbyns said. “It is a narrow political framing of the immediate damage. It does not account for harvesting contractors, haulage operators, roading contractors, mechanics, private native forestry operators, downstream manufacturers, wholesalers, builders, fencing suppliers, firewood operators, farm and infrastructure users, or the regional communities built around those supply chains.” The EY Economic Contribution Study of the NSW hardwood timber industry found that the North East NSW hardwood industry contributes $1.84 billion in gross revenue, $700 million in gross value added and supports 5,700 full-time equivalent jobs. Across NSW, the hardwood industry contributes $2.9 billion in gross revenue, $1.1 billion in gross value added and supports 8,900 full-time equivalent jobs. “The North Coast hardwood industry is not just six mills,” Mr Dobbyns said. “It is an integrated regional supply chain. “Over the INFM’s 15-year crediting period, the North East NSW hardwood industry represents a $10.5 billion regional economic base. Over the 100-year permanence period, it represents a $70 billion economic base. “That does not mean every dollar disappears, but it proves the NSW Government’s ‘six mills and 300 jobs’ line is grossly inadequate.” FWCA says the economics become even harder to justify when the 15-year crediting period is compared with the 100-year permanence obligation. “The NSW Government can receive carbon-credit income for 15 years, but the public is left with the management obligation for the remaining 85 years,” Mr Dobbyns said. “Who pays for fire management, roads, weeds, pests, compliance, visitor infrastructure, cultural heritage management and ongoing administration after the carbon-credit income stops? “The answer is obvious: taxpayers. “The State would be trading a renewable, productive, regionally embedded timber economy for 15 years of carbon-credit income, then leaving future taxpayers to fund the remaining 85 years of management. “How is that rational economic or social responsibility?” FWCA is calling for the INFM Determination to be disallowed until there has been an independent assessment of import leakage, inter-State displacement, private native forestry baseline integrity, the effect of pre-existing moratoria, regional socio-economic impacts and the long-term taxpayer liability created after carbon-credit income stops. “If the carbon benefit cannot survive proper leakage analysis, and the method cannot survive a proper socio-economic assessment, it should not be credited,” Mr Dobbyns said. “That is why this instrument should be disallowed.”

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