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The Global Softwood Roundwood Supply Outlook points to annual supply growth of about 0.5% through 2035, below expected demand growth. Sources: Global Wood Trade Network, and Panels Furniture Asia The Global Softwood Roundwood Supply Outlook forecasts annual softwood supply growth of about 0.5% through 2035, below expected demand growth, as regional constraints limit the potential for increased production. The findings, from Håkan Ekström of Global Wood Trends and Glen O’Kelly of O’Kelly Acumen, are contained in a four-part market report covering North America; Europe and Russia; Latin America, Asia and Oceania; and the global market. The reports examine potential sources of future softwood supply and the factors that could limit growth. Softwood roundwood supply has remained broadly flat since 2000, despite continued growth in overall roundwood production. Meanwhile, demand for construction timber, packaging and biomass is expected to increase, putting further pressure on the availability and real prices of softwood logs. The global outlook varies significantly between regions. Softwood roundwood supply in 2025 was close to its 25-year average, following a sharp fall from its all-time high in 2021. Since 2000, North American supply has declined by almost 20%, while Europe and Russia, and the rest of the world, have each increased by about 18%. The regions that have driven supply growth, however, face different prospects over the next decade. A look at the five regions The US South has the greatest potential to increase softwood roundwood supply. Timber resources remain abundant and harvesting is below biological growth, but labour shortages, infrastructure constraints and the investment required to expand production are expected to limit the pace of growth. In Canada, several years of declining harvests, particularly in British Columbia, are expected to give way to stabilisation and modest recovery. Supply is unlikely to return to previous levels, however. Europe faces tighter constraints. Many forests are already being harvested close to sustainable biological limits, while sustainability policies, forest protection measures and climate-related damage are restricting further growth. The base scenario points to little overall change in European supply, with declines in Central Europe and the Baltics offset by growth elsewhere, particularly in the Nordic region. Russia has substantial underused softwood resources, but much of this potential is unlikely to translate into additional supply. Political risks, market-access restrictions, infrastructure limitations and investment requirements are expected to keep significant volumes untapped. In Latin America and Asia-Pacific, plantation forestry remains competitive, but the area devoted to softwood plantations has changed little over the past decade. Investment has increasingly shifted towards hardwood plantations, while investment in softwood plantations has remained broadly unchanged. Productivity gains are expected to support modest growth in softwood supply, rather than a major expansion. In Japan and New Zealand, lower availability is largely linked to uneven age-class structures in plantations. Demand will remain an important driver of the market. US housing, European construction and China’s property market are expected to support sawlog demand, while greater substitution of hardwood species and recycled fibre in pulp and wood-based panels could change demand for different softwood log grades. China could become an example of how tighter supply affects trade flows. As log availability in Asia-Pacific becomes more constrained and Chinese sawmilling costs increase, the country is likely to import more lumber instead of logs. Climate change and geopolitical developments add further uncertainty. Insects, storms, drought and wildfire could affect forest growth and salvage harvesting, while changes in international relations could redirect trade flows. Carbon policies are expected to have a more limited impact on commercial softwood supply. The outlook suggests that global softwood supply can continue to grow, but only modestly. The issue is not simply how much timber exists in the world’s forests, but how much can be harvested, processed and delivered competitively to the markets that need it. As regional resources become more constrained, accessible and competitively priced softwood logs are likely to become harder to source through 2035.

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Metsä Group’s planned wood-based carbon dioxide capture plant in Rauma has been awarded EUR 21 million in aid through the reverse auction organised by Finland’s Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment. In addition to supporting climate change mitigation, carbon dioxide capture would create new business opportunities. Source: Timberbiz “Receiving this aid is one of the key prerequisites for making the investment. We are talking about building an entirely new industrial value chain, in a market that is only beginning to take shape. The positive decision means that we can continue planning the plant. We are very pleased with the Ministry’s decision,” said Maria Mroué, VP, Communications and Brand, Metsä Group. In the Ministry’s reverse auction, aid was granted to projects requiring the lowest amount of support per unit of carbon dioxide capture capacity to be built. In Metsä Group’s project, carbon dioxide would be captured from the flue gases of the recovery boiler at the Rauma pulp mill. The final investment decision can be considered at the beginning of 2027 at the earliest. In addition to the aid, the investment decision is subject to obtaining an environmental permit, completing the engineering of the capture plant, and securing sufficient market demand. The aid will only be paid if the investment is carried out. Capturing biogenic carbon dioxide, such as carbon dioxide originating from wood, supports climate change mitigation by replacing fossil carbon. The project would also create new business opportunities by turning an existing side stream into a new commercial product. The planned carbon capture capacity in Rauma would be 100,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide per year. Metsä Group’s customers would use the captured carbon dioxide in the production of e-fuels. Using 100,000 tonnes of wood-based carbon dioxide annually in a fuel value chain would avoid fossil carbon dioxide emissions equivalent to the annual emissions of nearly 30,000 passenger cars.

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British Columbia’s (Canada) Forests Ministry has chosen a stretch of land near Campbell River to be the first candidate for a proposed new model of how forests and timber are managed in the province.  Source: Nanaimo News Under what the province has dubbed the “working forest landscape model,” the area north of and adjacent to Campbell River would be divided into three zones that dictate how and where trees can be logged. Forests Minister Ravi Parmar says the goal is to end “cut-block-by-cut-block permitting” and move to “operational plan forestry,” while environmental groups have pushed back, saying the plan would create guaranteed logging zones and obstruct the public’s ability to protect and conserve forests. Randene Neill, B.C.’s minister of water, land and resource stewardship, told a news conference Tuesday that the working forest landscape model, which includes partnerships with First Nations, is a good test of what needs to be done to transform forestry in a sustainable way. Parmar says the exercise of deciding how the zones will be divided has to be community-based and involve First Nations, local government, industry and environmental groups. A statement from the Forests Ministry says officials will undertake technical, socio-economic and environmental analysis to better understand how a three-zone approach could be applied to the landscape. Dallas Smith, president of the Nanwakolas Council that is partnering with the province on the Campbell River plan, says there has been talk of the need for change in B.C.’s forests for decades. “We’re happy to be participating in this actual paradigm shift, where we’re talking about how a working forest works hand-in-hand with the conservation values that are important to us as British Columbians, the biodiversity values,” says the First Nation leader.

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